Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Doc Halladay Sweepstakes















Roy "Doc" Halladay is officially on the Trading Block.

"Look, we have Halladay through 2010, he makes us a contender with the young pitching we have, then we get two draft picks," Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi said. "So anyone who comes to us with two young players -- that's the equivalent of the draft picks -- we'd need something else and something else and something else and something else.

"That doesn't mean we're going to trade him. But we'll listen to what people have to say."

The Blue Jays will also look to trade Scott Rolen (3B), Vernon Wells (OF) and/or Alex Rios (OF), and B.J. Ryan (LHP-CL).

They have a young nucleus of Aaron Hill (2B), Adam Lind (OF), Travis Snider (OF), Ricky Romero (LHP), Scott Richmond (RHP), plus Dustin McGowan (RHP), and Shawn Marcum (RHP), both injured.

Their farm consists of J.P. Arenciba (C, #43, 2009), Brett Cecil (LHP, #72, 2010), & Marc Rzepcynski (LHP, 2009). [Baseball America Top 100 Prospects. Position/Rank/ETA.]

The Red Sox, Yankees, and the Rays are the class of the division and the American League. The Orioles are one-year away from pushing .500 and the Blue Jays are perilously close to tumbling into the cellar of the hardest division in the MLB.

With that being said, let’s take a look at the Top Five Suitors for Roy Halladay’s services (not counting the Yankees and Red Sox, who the Blue Jays would NOT trade Halladay too anyway)...

1. Phillies. This is a perfect match of need (Phillies – Starting Pitcher) and want (Blue Jays – Young Players). The Phillies can offer the Blue Jays Dominic Brown (OF, #48, ETA 2011), Carlos Carrasco (RHP, #52, ETA 2009), Lou Marson (C, #66, ETA 2009), & Jason Donald (SS, #69, ETA 2009). Plus, they can throw in J.A. Happ (LHP). The most realistic package for Halladay would be: Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and Happ. Brown, Carrasco, and Donald fit the bill "equivalent draft picks" and Happ would be the "something else." Marson doesn't fit into Toronto's favor because they already have J.P. Arenciba in their farm system. For the Phillies, pair up Halladay with Hamels and they'll have a lethal one-two playoff punch.

2. Brewers. They can offer Alcides Escobar (SS, #19, 2009), Mat Gamel (3B, #34, 2009), Jeremy Jeffress (RHP, #100, 2009), and Manny Parra (LHP). The Brewers are really a distant second in this race. Toronto should look closely at this match because they could get: Escobar and Gamel can start right-away. Plus, they can then move Rolen to make way for Gamel. Parra has potential but he has really struggled so far this year. A change of scenery may be good for him. And Jeffress is also ready to pitch now, albeit, in the bullpen. But, can the Brewers afford to sign Halladay to a $100-million/5-year extension?

3. Rangers. Neftali Perez (RHP, #10, 2009), Derek Holland (LHP, #31, 2009), Taylor Teagarden (C, #73, 2009), and Elvis Andrus (SS). Nolan Ryan sees a young version of himself in Halladay and he would move almost anybody to get him. Almost, the deal-breaker would be Elvis Andrus, their prized possession. Toronto would undoubtedly ask for Andrus and team him up with Hill for years to come. Perez and Holland could pitch right-away also. Ryan may have a man-crush on Halladay, but he couldn't give up Elvis, could he?

4. Mets. Fernando Martinez (OF, #30, 2010), Wilmer Flores (SS, #47, 2012), Jonathan Niese (LHP, #77, 2009), Brad Holt (RHP, #94, 2010), and Mike Pelfrey (RHP). The Mets would love to add Halladay, especially if the Phillies are the top suitors. This may turn into a bidding-war between the Phillies and the Mets. The Mets do not have a talented farm system. They could offer Martinez, Niese, Holt, Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell for Halladay. It doesn't look like they would move Flores, who is only 17-years old and still, at minimum, 3-years away. If Jose Reyes was healthy, he could be the deal-breaker. Imagine them packaging Reyes, Martinez, Niese, and Pelfrey for Halladay. If I was Ricciardi, I may pull the trigger on that one.

5. Dodgers. Andrew Lambo (OF, #49, 2010), Jason McDonald (RHP, #56, 2009), Clayton Kershaw (LHP), and Andre Ethier (OF). The Dodgers may jump into the mix only because they want to hurt the Phillies. They can't let the Phillies pair up Hamels with Halladay. But, who can the Dodgers give up? Kershaw supposedly is untouchable. Lambo and McDonald are good, but not great prospects. Matt Kemp is a prized commodity. Would the Dodgers, in a huge desperation move, ship Kemp, Ethier, McDonald, and Kershaw for Halladay? Highly unlikely.

Ultimately, this looks like it will come down to the two teams: the Phillies and the Blue Jays. If the Blue Jays are not happy with their return, then they'll hold onto Halladay for next year and get two first-round comp picks in 2011.

Look for Mark Shapiro and the Indians to closely monitor this scenario because they have a quality pitcher with similar circumstances: Cliff Lee.

Don't be surprised if Lee goes to the Brewers for Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, and Parra.

Pair-up Gallardo with Lee, and the Brewers could push the Phillies and the Dodgers for NL supremacy.

Things are getting interesting.

1 comment:

  1. obv the Phillies don't need him anymore now that they've got Pedro (uhm, on the DL...gulp)

    My bet is still that he doesn't go anywhere. Though I'm sure I speak for a ton of Sox fans when I say "send him to the NL!"

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