Thursday, July 30, 2009

Scoring Position: Pittsburgh Pirates













GM Neal Huntington has a plan.

When Huntington took over the General Manager duties for the moribund Pittsburgh Pirates in October 2007, he inherited one of the worst franchises in professional sports history.

Ever since Barry Bonds defected to the San Francisco Giants in 1993, the Pirates have had 16 straight losing seasons.

Huntington was left with a depleted farm system, bad contracts, and a team that hadn't won more than 70 games since 2004.

Think of it this way, the Pirates have been in a Recession for 16 years.

Not even Obama would want this job.

But Huntington has a plan.

Since late-2007, Huntington has made a plethora of trades that Pirates fans, Baseball experts, and Pirates players have questioned, panned, and ridiculed for the last 2 years.

He has traded away fan favorites Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche, and Freddy Sanchez.

No one on the Active Roster in considered untouchable.

The Pirates are on pace to win only 69 games this year. That is only 2 more than last year.

Let's breakdown a few of those trades and see what Huntington is thinking.

Trade #1: Pirates trade Xavier Nady (OF) & Damaso Marte (LHP) to the Yankees for Daniel McCutchen (RHP), Jeff Karstens (RHP), Ross Ohlendorf (RHP), and Jose Tabata (OF).

Back in 2008, the majority of experts were saying that this was a steal for the Yankees. Sure, maybe in the short-term. Xavier Nady has since blown-out his throwing elbow and got Tommy John surgery and may never be the same player again. Damaso Marte has been a train-wreck since his first pitch in pinstripes and he is also out for the year.

Ohlendorf has had a solid, not spectacular season (8-8, 4.51 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). But he can be a #3, at worst, #4 starter for the Pirates for a couple of years.

Karstens has developed into a long-man and may earn a spot in the rotation next season.

McCutchen is pitching well in AAA and may get a call-up this September and will challenge for a rotation bid next Spring.

Tabata is in AA, but will surely be promoted to AAA and may be ready in late-2010, early-2011.

Trade #2: Pirates send Jason Bay (OF) to Boston for Craig Hansen (RHP), Bryan Morris (RHP/Dodgers), Andy LaRoche (3B/Dodgers), and Brandon Moss (OF).

Well, thus far, Jason Bay has been great for the Red Sox and he helped them immediately forget about Manny's departure.

Hansen has flamed-out and he is currently on the 60-day DL.

Morris is not pitching well in AA.

LaRoche has been a serviceable 3B, but not a star.

Moss is, quite frankly, a platoon outfielder.

Trade #3: Pirates trade Nyjer Morgan (OF), Sean Burnett (LHP) to Washington for Lastings Milledge(OF) and Joel Hanrahan (RHP).

Morgan is an average centerfielder with good speed.

Burnett is a situational lefty out of the pen.

Milledge has the potential to be a solid corner outfielder and #5 hitter.

Hanrahan can become a closer or a setup-man.

I like this deal.

Trade #4: Pirates trade Jack Wilson (SS) and Ian Snell (RHP) to Seattle for Jeff Clement (1B/C), Ronny Cedeno (SS), plus 3 low-ball arms.

Wilson was making 7.4 million for a good glove and no bat. He will make over 8 million next season.

Snell has a live arm but poor mental makeup and he may wind up in the bullpen in Seattle.

Clement never panned-out in Seattle as a power-hitting catcher. He will get another chance at firstbase for the Pirates.

Cedeno is a back-up middle-infielder.

Trade #5: Pirates trade Freddy Sanchez (2B) to San Francisco for Tim Alderson (RHP).

Sanchez was earning 6.25 million.

Alderson has the potential to be a #2 or #3 starter.

Trade #6: Pirates trade Adam LaRoche (1B) to Boston for Argenis Diaz (SS) and Hunter Strickland (RHP).

LaRoche was earning 7.05 million.

Diaz is a glove-man.

Huntington essentially traded his 4 highest paid players this year (LaRoche, Wilson, Sanchez, and Snell) for prospects that are projected to have similar stats at drastically lower salaries.

He has transformed the Pirates into a Lean Organization.

Paul Maholm (LHP) is now their highest paid-player (2.5 million).

As currently constituted, the Pirates will have the lowest payroll in the MLB (at approximately 31 million).

This will give Huntington the latitude he needs to lock-up his homegrown players before arbitration (example, Zach Duke).

With that being said, the 2009 Pirates lineup may look like this...

1. Andrew McCutcheon (CF)
2. Delwyn Young (2B)
3. Garret Jones (LF)
4. Ryan Doumit (C)
5. Jeff Clement (1B)
6. Lastings Milledge (RF)
7. Pedro Alvarez (3B)
8. Argenis Diaz (SS)

Their rotation may look like this...

1. Paul Maholm (L)
2. Zach Duke (L)
3. Ross Ohlendorf (R)
4. Charlie Morton (R)
5. Daniel McCutchen (R)

Plus, they will have a stronger farm system with the following players waiting in the wings...

-Victor Black (RHP)
-Tony Sanchez (C)
-Eric Hacker (RHP)
-Jose Tabata (OF)
-Gorkys Hernandez (OF)
-Daniel Moskos (LHP)
-Tim Alderson (RHP)
-Virgil Vazquez (RHP)

Neal Huntington has a plan.

He has created a team with a young nucleus of outfielders (McCutcheon, Milledge, and Jones), an All-Star caliber 3B (Alvarez), a streamlined payroll with player extension flexibility, and a solid rotation of young arms.

The Pirates should break 70 games next year and challenge for .500, and possibly, the playoffs in 2011.

In Neal We Trust.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Doc Halladay Sweepstakes















Roy "Doc" Halladay is officially on the Trading Block.

"Look, we have Halladay through 2010, he makes us a contender with the young pitching we have, then we get two draft picks," Toronto GM J.P. Ricciardi said. "So anyone who comes to us with two young players -- that's the equivalent of the draft picks -- we'd need something else and something else and something else and something else.

"That doesn't mean we're going to trade him. But we'll listen to what people have to say."

The Blue Jays will also look to trade Scott Rolen (3B), Vernon Wells (OF) and/or Alex Rios (OF), and B.J. Ryan (LHP-CL).

They have a young nucleus of Aaron Hill (2B), Adam Lind (OF), Travis Snider (OF), Ricky Romero (LHP), Scott Richmond (RHP), plus Dustin McGowan (RHP), and Shawn Marcum (RHP), both injured.

Their farm consists of J.P. Arenciba (C, #43, 2009), Brett Cecil (LHP, #72, 2010), & Marc Rzepcynski (LHP, 2009). [Baseball America Top 100 Prospects. Position/Rank/ETA.]

The Red Sox, Yankees, and the Rays are the class of the division and the American League. The Orioles are one-year away from pushing .500 and the Blue Jays are perilously close to tumbling into the cellar of the hardest division in the MLB.

With that being said, let’s take a look at the Top Five Suitors for Roy Halladay’s services (not counting the Yankees and Red Sox, who the Blue Jays would NOT trade Halladay too anyway)...

1. Phillies. This is a perfect match of need (Phillies – Starting Pitcher) and want (Blue Jays – Young Players). The Phillies can offer the Blue Jays Dominic Brown (OF, #48, ETA 2011), Carlos Carrasco (RHP, #52, ETA 2009), Lou Marson (C, #66, ETA 2009), & Jason Donald (SS, #69, ETA 2009). Plus, they can throw in J.A. Happ (LHP). The most realistic package for Halladay would be: Brown, Carrasco, Donald, and Happ. Brown, Carrasco, and Donald fit the bill "equivalent draft picks" and Happ would be the "something else." Marson doesn't fit into Toronto's favor because they already have J.P. Arenciba in their farm system. For the Phillies, pair up Halladay with Hamels and they'll have a lethal one-two playoff punch.

2. Brewers. They can offer Alcides Escobar (SS, #19, 2009), Mat Gamel (3B, #34, 2009), Jeremy Jeffress (RHP, #100, 2009), and Manny Parra (LHP). The Brewers are really a distant second in this race. Toronto should look closely at this match because they could get: Escobar and Gamel can start right-away. Plus, they can then move Rolen to make way for Gamel. Parra has potential but he has really struggled so far this year. A change of scenery may be good for him. And Jeffress is also ready to pitch now, albeit, in the bullpen. But, can the Brewers afford to sign Halladay to a $100-million/5-year extension?

3. Rangers. Neftali Perez (RHP, #10, 2009), Derek Holland (LHP, #31, 2009), Taylor Teagarden (C, #73, 2009), and Elvis Andrus (SS). Nolan Ryan sees a young version of himself in Halladay and he would move almost anybody to get him. Almost, the deal-breaker would be Elvis Andrus, their prized possession. Toronto would undoubtedly ask for Andrus and team him up with Hill for years to come. Perez and Holland could pitch right-away also. Ryan may have a man-crush on Halladay, but he couldn't give up Elvis, could he?

4. Mets. Fernando Martinez (OF, #30, 2010), Wilmer Flores (SS, #47, 2012), Jonathan Niese (LHP, #77, 2009), Brad Holt (RHP, #94, 2010), and Mike Pelfrey (RHP). The Mets would love to add Halladay, especially if the Phillies are the top suitors. This may turn into a bidding-war between the Phillies and the Mets. The Mets do not have a talented farm system. They could offer Martinez, Niese, Holt, Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell for Halladay. It doesn't look like they would move Flores, who is only 17-years old and still, at minimum, 3-years away. If Jose Reyes was healthy, he could be the deal-breaker. Imagine them packaging Reyes, Martinez, Niese, and Pelfrey for Halladay. If I was Ricciardi, I may pull the trigger on that one.

5. Dodgers. Andrew Lambo (OF, #49, 2010), Jason McDonald (RHP, #56, 2009), Clayton Kershaw (LHP), and Andre Ethier (OF). The Dodgers may jump into the mix only because they want to hurt the Phillies. They can't let the Phillies pair up Hamels with Halladay. But, who can the Dodgers give up? Kershaw supposedly is untouchable. Lambo and McDonald are good, but not great prospects. Matt Kemp is a prized commodity. Would the Dodgers, in a huge desperation move, ship Kemp, Ethier, McDonald, and Kershaw for Halladay? Highly unlikely.

Ultimately, this looks like it will come down to the two teams: the Phillies and the Blue Jays. If the Blue Jays are not happy with their return, then they'll hold onto Halladay for next year and get two first-round comp picks in 2011.

Look for Mark Shapiro and the Indians to closely monitor this scenario because they have a quality pitcher with similar circumstances: Cliff Lee.

Don't be surprised if Lee goes to the Brewers for Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, and Parra.

Pair-up Gallardo with Lee, and the Brewers could push the Phillies and the Dodgers for NL supremacy.

Things are getting interesting.